Saturday, January 2, 2010

Cautiously pessimistic

I just needed to get this recorded while it's still a prediction and not a review -- I just discovered that Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo will all miss tonight's basketball game against the Raptors. On learning that, my first reaction was one of horror, because I am almost certain the Raptors will now lose what I was hoping would be a winnable game.

My logic -- I knew the Raptors had a stretch of five reasonably vulnerable opponents coming up, but I also knew that the Celtics game was a steel door slamming shut on that string. However, Pierce was forced to sit out a couple of weeks, and that's kind of optimal for opponents -- you don't want to face an experienced team when they have a special incentive, like, "Hey, let's all pull together and show what we can do when we're missing one of our big guns." That first game of a star's injury leave is usually a win, but it's two or three games after that, when flaws are exposed and other teams have a chance to adjust their game plans to take advantage of your lesser talents.

So, the last couple of days, it seemed like all systems were go for the Raptors. Pierce was probably out, and KG was banged up a bit -- best case scenario, he starts, but isn't able to play at his normal level, which is probably worse for the team than if he just sits out. However -- now that three starters are gonna be missing, and especially since it looks like it's only gonna be this game (no Oden/Pryzbilla horrific timetables), I can feel in my bones that all of the bench Celtics are gonna explode for one game. It won't be thing of beauty basketball, but somehow they'll get it done, because that's what they do, and the Raptors are not a team that are adept at exploiting weaknesses. In reality, this was a game I was expecting a loss for anyway, so I believe I'll be prepared to take it in stride -- but dammit, when I read game stories tomorrow and then read the comments, I'm gonna have to put up with a ridiculous amount of teeth-gnashing and vitriol.

Prove me wrong, kids. Prove me wrong.

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